Are Polls Really Believable?
I'm not sure about you, but some of the recent polls don't make sense.
Polls come out all the time. Trump is up, Kamala is down, it’s all over the place.
Usually the differences can be explained, but sometimes it’s not so easy. Recent polls for North Carolina shows that Trump is ahead, but a democrat is leading in the race for governor.
There are plenty of reasons that this could happen, but how likely are they. For example, let’s assume that the republican candidate for governor is not very well liked, it’s possible that someone could vote for a democrat governor, and a republican presidential candidate — but how realistic is that? It’s hard to say.
Most polls are, “within the margin of error.” The question then becomes, “How many democrat voters are going to vote for Trump?”
That’s why AZ was so sketchy in 2022. The republican state treasurer received more votes than either of the two gubernatorial candidates?
That’s a pretty big difference. Who shows up to the polls for the state treasurer’s race?
Did any polls predicted that outcome? None that I can find. But they might be out there.
What do you think?
If you enjoy my writing, you might want to check out my original blog WindUpRubberFinger.com. I have decided to mirror my posts on Substack, and WindUpRubberFinger.com. I will work on moving older posts over to Substack as references for newer articles.
One of the many things I did in grad school was design marketing surveys. It matters if you have a random sample. That's one reason I don't run polls on the web sites and platforms like Substackistan and Twitter. No such poll has useful information because the sample cannot be random. And people don't much like that fact so they ignore it.
You also need to have a representative sample. If you take a random sample of a thousand people and all of them have doctorate degrees from Ivy League schools and you are tryna say what to expect from the world population, your results will be off base. Idiotic.
So the polls have a methodology. If you take the time to look, you find out that they are not really good at getting a random and representative sample. Self selection error is a thing.
Now, about the election in Arizona. I will tell you what happened. All the people who voted for the Republican candidate for one office voted also for Kari Lake for governor. Then the election officials deleted any record of about two hundred thousand of the votes for Lake and declared victory for Hobbs. I believe that it can be proven. But so what? The filthy demon worshippers are not going to stop lying about it. And it takes years to prove anything in court, which is by design.
The system works really well for the people who profit from it. They have lots of tools for keeping it working for them and against you and me and other good people. So there isn't any point in voting.
I won't vote in your poll. I won't vote in November. It is possible to win our freedom. But not by voting.
Polls are
Biased✅
Fake✅
Ghey✅